I've set the sun/moon angle on Durin's Day to be 22.5 deg because it seems most likely this is when the crescent moon will be visible right before the setting sun. Due to the brightness of the sun and the tiny sliver of moon, you should be able to see the moon after civil twilight. Times are EDT.
Winter (Samhain) - Nov 6 6:47p
New Moon (sun/moon angle 0 deg) - Oct 30 1:38p
New Crescent (sun/moon angle 22.5 deg) - Nov 1
Waxing Crescent (sun / moon angle 45 deg) - Nov 3 4:50p
Sunset - 6:05p
Civil Twilight ends - 6:33p
Moonset - 7:38p
Sadly it was cloudy so I didn't see the doorway open. Bummer.
My first post on how I figured this out is here.